BCSA Predictions
How BCSA Predictions work
Statistical estimates for Premier League fixtures, calculated from this season's real league data. They describe likelihoods, never certainties — they are not betting tips.
The model
We use a Poisson goals model with a Dixon-Coles adjustment for low scores — a well-established approach in football statistics.
For each fixture we compare the home side's record in home matches and the away side's record in away matches against the league's average home and away scoring. Small samples are pulled toward the league average so a handful of games can't produce extreme numbers.
From the expected goals for each side we calculate the chance of every scoreline, then add them up into home win, draw and away win probabilities, the most likely scores, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
No estimate is shown until both teams have played at least three home (or away) games and the league has enough completed matches. The model does not know about injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers or betting odds.
Locked at kick-off
Every estimate is saved before the match. Once the match kicks off the saved estimate is locked and never recalculated, and we never create an estimate after kick-off. If a match is postponed, its estimate is withdrawn. After the final whistle we record the result next to the locked estimate.
Track record
No settled matches yet. Results will appear here as matches finish.
See Premier League fixtures with BCSA Predictions →
Statistics are supplied by a third-party data provider and may be delayed. They are for information only and never guarantee any betting outcome. 18+ only — gamble responsibly.